Observations indicate that rainfall during the onset phase of the monsoon (June) is not correlated with rainfall in the post-onset phase (July-September). For the first time, this study establishes a connection between inter-annual and monthly variations in rainfall without assuming any of the intra-seasonal features typically observed during the monsoon, such as onset, intra-seasonal oscillations, synoptic variabilities, and extremes. Inter-annual variations lead to perturbations to the mean seasonal cycle, which in turn results in monthly variations of rainfall on top of the mean seasonal cycle. This study aims to understand the governing mechanisms behind these monthly variations of rainfall every year. The analyses reveal that June rainfall, which is related to the rapid or slow progress of the monsoon onset, is primarily influenced by the normal or slow phase transition of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, along with prevailing background conditions of precipitable water. Conversely, the rainfall for the remainder of the season is mainly governed by the phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation through anomalous moisture flux convergence.
See here for details.Reference:
Bhattacharyya and Chakraborty(2025).